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June 1, 2017



 

Donald Trump Withdraws From Climate Deal He Says Is Unfair to U.S.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-to-exit-paris-climate-deal-officials-say-1496343854

 

"EY: Power & Utilities Sector M&A Interest at 7-Year High.

89% of survey respondents expect their deal pipelines to either stay steady or rise in the next 12 months."

https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ey-power-utilities-sector-ma-interest-7-year-high/

 

New Economy Indexes.

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/banking-and-capital-markets/kensho-new-economies.html#.WTAskflVjOE

 

"On the Record: Do you invest in real assets?"

https://www.ipe.com/pensions/investors/on-the-record/on-the-record-do-you-invest-in-real-assets/10018612.article

 

Data dump:

 

Implied probability of June 14 rate hike is ~96%.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

VIX at ~9.9.
https://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index

10-year government bond yields.
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads

 

"Analysts said the new [JGB] 10-year sale attracted sufficient demand with yields on the maturities hovering around 0.05 percent, which has served as a ceiling since early April."

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-bonds-idUSL3N1IY26X


Forex.
https://www.investing.com/currencies/streaming-forex-rates-majors

Equity.
https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

Commodities.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

 

 

"Dow Jones increased to a 13-week high of 21113.

 

Hang Seng increased to a 22-month high of 25875.

 

Natural gas decreased to a 5-week low of 3.031 USD/MMBtu.

 

US Factory Activity Growth Edges Up In May: ISM. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US edged up to 54.9 in May of 2017 from 54.8 in April, beating expectations of 54.5. New orders, employment and inventories went up, offsetting slower growth in production.

 

Construction spending in the US declined 1.4 percent to $1.22 trillion in April 2017, following an upwardly revised 1.1 percent jump in March and missing market expectations of a 0.5 percent increase. It was the biggest drop in a year, as spending on public construction tumbled 3.7 percent, the sharpest fall since July 2016, with outlays on state and local government construction projects dropping 3.5 percent and federal government construction spending declining 5.7 percent. Also, private construction spending contracted 0.7 percent, the steepest decrease in a year, led by lower investment in residential construction (-0.7 percent) and nonresidential structures (-0.6 percent). Year-on-year, construction spending increased 6.7 percent.

 

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased by 13 thousand to 248 thousand in the week ended May 27th from the previous week's revised level of 235 thousand and way above market expectations of 239 thousand. Still, it was 117th straight week that claims were below 300 thousand, a level associated with a healthy jobs market.

 

The seasonally adjusted Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI declined to 55.1 in May 2017 from 55.9 in the previous month. Output, new orders, and employment increased markedly, although at slightly slower rates than in April. Meantime, client demand continued to recover, leading to greater input buying and the fastest upturn in pre-production inventories since May of 2012. However, suppliers’ lead-times lengthened to greatest degree since March of 2014. Input cost inflation held close to April’s three-year high, driven by strong demand for factory inputs (especially metals), as well as rising prices for imported raw materials. 

 

The seasonally adjusted manufacturing confidence in Mexico rose to 47.5 in May of 2017 from 46.9 in the previous month. It is the highest reading since October last year, as manufacturers current opinion about the country's general economic situation (43.1 from 42.8 in April), company situation (52.4 from 51.8) and investment (36.2 from 34.8) is more positive. Also, expectations improved regarding country's economic situation (49.1 from 48.3) and company situation (58.1 from 57.1).

 

The seasonally adjusted ABSA Manufacturing PMI for South Africa rose to 51.5 in May of 2017 from 44.7 in the previous month. The observed recovery suggests that April's contraction was mainly led by a souring sentiment rather than an effective deterioration in demand and economic activity. The April survey followed the controversial cabinet reshuffle late March with subsequent credit rating downgrades. New orders rose sharply and business activity accelerated, as demand recovered. Also, inventories increased. In contrast, employment declined significantly. Purchasing price index eased, led by the stronger rand exchange rate and lower crude oil prices."

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/stream

 

6/1 Daily Shot highlights.

 

Mixed in the US. Growth in Europe. Growth in EM.

 

"The [US] private payrolls report from ADP showed that 253 thousand new jobs were created in May – significantly more than economists have been projecting.

Here is the ADP infographic showing the breakdown by sector. Construction employment bounced from last month.

 

 

 

US construction spending disappointed again. Here is the month-to-month percent change.

On a year-over-year basis, residential construction spending growth has recovered.

Public construction spending, on the other hand, remains tepid – especially infrastructure investment. Here is the spending on “sewage and waste disposal.”

 

 

 

 

 

US vehicle sales missed forecasts again, especially for domestic autos. Surging used car inventories (off-lease) are pressuring sales of new automobiles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the first time in two years, Brazil had a quarter of positive GDP growth..

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"

 

https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2017/06/01/wsjs-daily-shot-u-s-carbon-emissions-set-to-slow-despite-the-paris-accord-exit/

 

Tech

 

"Biggest VC-backed companies in US, Europe worth nearly $500b, says report."
https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/biggest-venture-backed-companies-us-europe-500b-74037/

 

"Cybersecurity Exits Timeline: Activity Remains Strong As Tech Corporates Target AI Startups."
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/cybersecurity-exits-acquisition-merger-timeline/


"The Periodic Table of Cybersecurity Startups."
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/periodic-table-cybersecurity-startups/


"Intelsat expects $14 billion OneWeb merger deal to fail."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oneweb-intelsat-m-a-idUSKBN18S4UY

 

"Capital Markets Tech Investment Reaches New Highs.

Companies in this category provide tools that range from alternative trading systems to financial modeling and analysis software."

https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/capital-markets-tech-fintech-funding/

 

"Event Video: Uncovering Alpha Using Alternative Datasets."

http://www.wallstreethorizon.com/altdata_panel

Nice discussion about available alternative data and how they're used.

 

Random

 

'Random Place' today - "Dimmuborgir. These ominous lava formations were said to be an entrance to the netherworld so of course they inspired a famous metal band."

http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/dimmuborgir

 

Events on 6/2 (ET)

 

Great Britain, PMI Construction, 4:30 AM ET (down to 52.6 consensus)

European Union, PPI, 5:00 AM ET (up to 0.2% M/M, up to 4.5% Y/Y consensus)

USA, Employment Situation, 8:30 AM ET (Unemployment Rate flat at 4.4% consensus, among others)

USA, International Trade, 8:30 AM ET (down to -US$46.1bn conesnsus)

Canada, Merchandise Trade 8:30 AM ET

USA, Baker-Hughes Rig Count, 1:00 PM ET

 

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-globalEconomicCalendar.html

 

 

 

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