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Interesting Market News

May 25, 2017

Random market news.

 

- OPEC and Russia extend production cuts to March 2018.

- But WTI fell below $50 again.

- ~1.7mm bbl/day production expected to go online in 2017, excluding US shale.

- Lumber and Nickel continue to decline, like other industrial commodities (despite relatively weaker USD). 

- S&P Technology driving broader index (7.9% YTD, 4.6% ex-AAPL, FB, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL).

- VIX remains below 10.

- Bitcoin at ~USD 2600.

- US Loan funds have 28th consecutive weeks of inflows. AUM now ~$150bn.

- US Trade Balance in Goods worse than expected (-US$67.6bn), which will likely lead to lower GDP growth figures.

- Large divergence b/w Trump budget deficit projections and CBO's (zero vs. ~$1.4tr in 10 years).

- US restaurant traffic (MillerPulse) has been negative since April 2016, but largest drop most recently (-5%).- Broader EM bank lending conditions improved materially this quarter.

- Brazil Total Loans continues decline from 2015 peak. Now ~BRL 3,100bn.

- US Total C&I loans flat since late 2016. ~USD 2.1tr a/o April 2017.

- India SENSEX hit record high again at ~30,750.

- USDCNY now down to ~6.87. 

- Robust Q1 GDP growth across Eurozone.

- Corporate debt to GDP comparison.

 

 

 

 

- HF gross and net leverage estimates.

 

 

- "Insurers are introducing fixed-rate deferred annuities with income guarantees to circumvent BICE"

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170525/FREE/170529942/dol-fiduciary-rule-pushes-indexed-annuity-carriers-to-develop-new

 

- "Church of England's Investment Fund Eyes Music Royalties"

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3720293/investors-endowments-and-foundations/church-of-englands-investment-fund-eyes-music-royalties.html#.WSejYevyu0o

"Asset managers are willing to consider esoteric investments as they increasingly seek new ways to diversity their portfolios."

CoE returned 17.1% in 2016 and 9.6% average return over 30 years.

 

- "Investing In Private Equity: Concerns in a hot market"

https://www.ipe.com/investment/investing-in/private-equity/investing-in-private-equity-concerns-in-a-hot-market/10018677.article

 

 

- WSJ's series on (new) quants in finance this week.

"In our series “The Quants,” The Wall Street Journal explores just how far this approach has changed the nature of investing—and where it will evolve next."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-quants-meet-the-new-kings-of-wall-street-1495389163

 

Random infra news.

 

- Progressive lawmakers lay out alternative infrastructure plan. 
http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/334654-progressive-lawmakers-lay-out-alternative-infrastructure-plan

 

"The proposal from Lieu would inject $2 trillion into a wide range of transportation projects over 10 years, including those that boost public transit systems, water and sewer systems, clean-energy jobs, high-speed internet access and veterans hospitals."  Rhetorical bidding war is good.

 

- Germany bans road privatisations, limits PPPs. Following lengthy coalition battles, the government has agreed to set up a federal road infrastructure company free from private capital and imposed additional limits on PPPs.

 

- Cote d'Ivoire is planning to build a 25MW solar plant in the north of the country to alleviate demand pressure on the grid.

 

- Brookfield Asset Management has deployed 45% of Brookfield Infrastructure Fund III (BIF III) and expects to launch the next generation fund in 2018, CEO Bruce Flatt told shareholders.

 

- US-based manager BlackRock has reached final close on its Colombia Infrastructure Debt Fund.

 

- Clifford Capital is preparing the issuance of project finance loan securitisations, chief executive Clive Kerner told McKinsey’s Global Infrastructure Initiative Summit in Singapore. The government-backed finance institution is aiming to come to the market by the end of 2017 or early 2018, Kerner said.

Driven by Basel 3 to reduce long-term loan exposure. Infra is hot now, but they must still have a lot that they can't sell to resort to something like this.

 

- Sri Lanka’s cabinet has approved the development of a 1,040 hybrid solar and wind park in Pooneryn in the Northern Province on the country’s north-western coast.

 

- The city of Rio de Janeiro has signed a contract with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to help structure and implement a public-private partnership to build and maintain approximately 130 new schools, for pre-school and kindergarten education.

 

- TPG pays $2.4bn for west coast fibre-optic provider. The firm said it plans to merge Wave Broadband with a company it acquired last August to make the sixth largest cable operator in the US.

 

- Swiss Life backs Cellnex’s landmark €430m telecoms deal. The transaction, also backed by Germany’s Deutsche Telekom Capital Partners, ensures Cellnex becomes Switzerland’s first independent operator of mobile telco infrastructure.

 

Tech stuff.

 

"Funding Vs. Exit Showdown: More Money Is Once Again Flowing Out Of Tech Than In"

https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/exits-vs-deals-tech-trends/

 

"Digital Health Funding Reaches Record Level"

https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/digital-health-funding-trends/

 

"SEA tech startups lag far behind China and India in attracting VC funding"

https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/sea-tech-startups-china-india-vc-funding-73389/

 

"SoftBank invests $100m in Brazilian ride-hailing app 99"

https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/softbank-brazil-ride-hailing-app99-73427/

 

Legal-tech system that summarizes documents.

https://www.agolo.com/splash

 

Fun with image identification.

amzn.to/takepicture

 

Fun with hacking.

http://map.norsecorp.com/#/

 

Events tmrw.

 

- Italy Bus & Cons Confidence, 4:00 AM ET (108.0 Mfg and 107.3 Cons consensus)

- US Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 AM ET (New orders -1.0% M/M, 0.2% M/M Core consensus)

- US GDP, 8:30 AM ET (0.8% Q/Q consensus)

- US Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 AM ET (97.6 consensus)

- US Baker-Hughes Rig Count, 1:00 PM ET

 

 

References.

 

Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Institutional Investor, AI-CIO/Chief Investment Officer, Investment & Pensions Europe, Pension & Investments, Infrastructure Journal, Infrastructure Investor, CBInsights, Deal Street Asia, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Standard and Poors, Moody's, Fitch Ratings, CME Group, Capital IQ, Quandl."

 

 

 

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